Summary: The Geopolitical Implications of the European Green Deal

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The Geopolitical Implications of the European Green Deal
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On 10 January 2022, TCB partner the Wilson Center held the event “The Geopolitical Implications of the European Green Deal.” Speakers discussed the European Green Deal (EGD), its implications for climate diplomacy and strategic foresight, and its potential impact on transatlantic relations. Comprising the event’s panel were David Livingston, Senior Advisor to U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry; Anne Bergenfelt, Senior Advisor at the Office of EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy; and Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. The event was moderated by Andreas Raspotnik, Austrian Marshall Plan Fellow and Senior Research Fellow at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute.

Panelists detailed the fundamental geopolitical nature of climate policy and stressed that, although climate policy creates opportunities for international cooperation, it is also about international coercion. According to Shapiro, there are four major implications of the EDG for European geopolitical power: i) it will have a destabilizing effect on petrostates like Russia; ii) it will transition the EU away from fossil fuels and towards renewables, increasing the bloc’s reliance on countries with abundant supplies of critical earth minerals; iii) it will have an existential impact on the global oil market by suppressing prices, which will also affect oil-producing countries; and iv) it will influence global trade, notably via the carbon border adjustment mechanism, which could have significant geopolitical consequences.

Stateside, the Biden-Harris Administration is seeking its own version of a Green Deal that could drastically decrease emissions produced by the US energy sector. Through Biden’s Build Back Better Act, cooperation on transatlantic climate action could increase considerably. When asked for her opinion of the Act and how it might synergize with the EGD, Bergenfelt emphasized the EU’s desire to pursue ambitious climate action with its US counterparts, stating, “we have not only the budget to help finance a green transition in developing states, but also the intellectual and political capacity to support developed countries as well”.

Adding to the discussion on transatlantic climate cooperation, Livingston stated, “in the first year of the Biden-Harris Administration, there was far more that united the EU and US in tackling the climate crisis than what divided us.” In 2022 and beyond, the task before the two powers is matching climate action to their recent waves of strong climate ambition. He cited the German G7 Presidency as an opportunity to realize this action, which could build upon recent developments such as the US-EU Joint Agreement on Steel and Aluminum.

Shapiro took a less optimistic tone in his concluding remarks, expressing concern over the politics of the EGD. “There is a consensus in Europe that climate change needs to be tackled, but absolutely nobody wants to pay for it,” he said in connection to the bloc’s rising energy prices. The US, he added, is even worse – with one party that doesn’t believe in climate change and the eventual (and potentially soon) transition of power likely undoing all progress made by the current administration, he argued meaningful climate ambition won’t happen in the country without sweeping support from both sides of the political divide.

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